As expected from the prior inflation reports with CPI and PPI, the PCE index had also shown the same corollary among its data points, reporting a higher than expected increase for the month of February across all products.
In addition, the Chicago PMI had shown a declining trend of activity among businesses for the 6th week in a row. All this points to that there might be a case for the Federal Reserve to continue holding rates in the next rate decision coming up in the summer of 2024. There has been much speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at this time; however this is evidence of the contrary.
Consumer Sentiment Reports
The numbers: The final reading of consumer sentiment in March rose to a 32-month high, as Americans expressed more confidence that inflation would ease and reduce the financial strain on households. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey climbed to 79.4 from an initial 76.5.
Chicago PMI
The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, weakened further in March, dropping to 41.4 from 44 in the prior month. This is the fourth straight monthly decline. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 45 reading.
PCI Index
Prices in the U.S. rose again in February based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, reinforcing the view that inflation might not slow as much in 2024 as previously believed. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. That’s a touch below the 0.4% forecast.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.10% with the current rate at 6.11%.
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.79%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.07% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.06% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.41%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 210,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.
What’s Ahead
This upcoming week has very little in the way of valuable reporting data. The following after next will contain further inflation data with the release of CPI and PPI reports. The only report that should be noted is the U.S. Trade Balance reports.
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About the Author:
Babak Moghaddam graduated from University of Southern California in 1985. He entered the mortgage industry as a compliance auditor at the Bank of New York in 1986 and completed his masters in Business Administration two years later. After seventeen years in the traditional mortgage banking world Babak finally transformed this vision into his own practice in 2002 when he formed Charter Pacific Lending Corp, a mortgage company that has provided over $900 Million in residential real estate loans throughout Southern California. Babak and his team do things a little differently than other mortgage providers. They work as financial advisors, because they have come to realize that a mortgage is a very powerful financial tool. And just like any other financial tool, it should be managed as part of the overall financial management plan to reach every home owner’s long and short-term financial goals much faster. You can contact Babak for a free consultation and strategy session at (800) 322-1217 X103.