The final release of the GDP figures are the last large releases of the year before moving into Q1 of 2024, with the GDP report showing the economy had shown growth — particularly in Q3 with it tapering off by the end of the year. While the growth had been strong, it still was less than expected by analysts, however the final numbers do indicate we are on a track for a soft-landing and with the potential to all-together avoid a potential recession. The only other reports of note were the Personal Spending and PCE Index Prices.
GDP 2023 (Final)
The U.S. economy expanded at a revised 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, a surprising burst of growth that appears to have tapered off at year’s end.
Growth of gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was reduced from a previously reported 5.2% in the government’s third estimate. It was still the biggest increase in GDP in a decade, however, excluding the pandemic years of 2020-21.
Personal Income and Spending
In November, consumer spending experienced a slight increase of 0.2%, indicating a somewhat tempered growth in the U.S. economy. The trend of subdued spending was also observed in October. On a positive note, incomes saw a rise of 0.4% during the same period. This increase in income is noteworthy as it now outpaces inflation.
PCE Index
In November, the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, registered a decline for the first time since 2020, signaling a continued easing of price pressures. The year-over-year inflation growth also decelerated, dropping to 2.6% from the previous month’s 2.9%, marking the lowest level since February 2021.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.43% with the current rate at 5.95%.
- 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.28% with the current rate at 6.67%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates saw a -0.02% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.12%
- 30-Yr VA rates saw a -0.02% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.13%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims have decreased to 206,000 in comparison to the expected claims of 218,000. The prior week number was 203,000.
What’s Ahead
With New Year’s on the horizon, the only notable release will be the regularly scheduled Jobless Claims release.
DEC
About the Author:
Babak Moghaddam graduated from University of Southern California in 1985. He entered the mortgage industry as a compliance auditor at the Bank of New York in 1986 and completed his masters in Business Administration two years later. After seventeen years in the traditional mortgage banking world Babak finally transformed this vision into his own practice in 2002 when he formed Charter Pacific Lending Corp, a mortgage company that has provided over $900 Million in residential real estate loans throughout Southern California. Babak and his team do things a little differently than other mortgage providers. They work as financial advisors, because they have come to realize that a mortgage is a very powerful financial tool. And just like any other financial tool, it should be managed as part of the overall financial management plan to reach every home owner’s long and short-term financial goals much faster. You can contact Babak for a free consultation and strategy session at (800) 322-1217 X103.