The first week of December’s largest reports are the GDP estimates, which will be the second estimations of the year prior to the final release. The final GDP reports will be after the new year and are the strongest indicator for the economic state of the country. With the Federal Reserve aiming for a soft landing for the economy, it is important for the GDP and inflation statistics to be in parity with each other. The last but also very important releases for the end of the year are the Personal Income and Spending data.
GDP Estimates (First Release)
The numbers: The U.S. economy grew at an assuring 5.2% annual pace in the third quarter, faster than previously reported, but the surprisingly strong gain appears to have been a one–off occurrence.
Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was revised upwards Wednesday from an initially reported 4.9% rate of growth. It was the biggest increase in a decade, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending rose a mild 0.2% in October in potentially another sign of a long-predicted slowdown in the U.S. economy. While spending has slowed, many inflation rates, lending rates, and other factors have been showing signs of an improving economy.
Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecasted a 0.2% increase.
Consumer spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy and outlays grew a robust 3.6% in the third quarter.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
The last 4 weeks have seen a week-to-week decline in rates.
- 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 6.56%.
- 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.07% with the current rate at 7.22%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates decreased week-to-week, seeing a -0.15% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
- 30-Yr VA rates decreased week-to-week, seeing a -0.15% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
Jobless Claims
U.S. jobless claims drop to five-week low of 209,000.
Initial Claims have increased to 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week was 210,000.
What’s Ahead
Next week will be an important release schedule with the final CPI and PPI reports, which saddled alongside the final GDP numbers, will be the largest indicators for the robustness of the current economy and for 2023 as a whole.
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About the Author:
Babak Moghaddam graduated from University of Southern California in 1985. He entered the mortgage industry as a compliance auditor at the Bank of New York in 1986 and completed his masters in Business Administration two years later. After seventeen years in the traditional mortgage banking world Babak finally transformed this vision into his own practice in 2002 when he formed Charter Pacific Lending Corp, a mortgage company that has provided over $900 Million in residential real estate loans throughout Southern California. Babak and his team do things a little differently than other mortgage providers. They work as financial advisors, because they have come to realize that a mortgage is a very powerful financial tool. And just like any other financial tool, it should be managed as part of the overall financial management plan to reach every home owner’s long and short-term financial goals much faster. You can contact Babak for a free consultation and strategy session at (800) 322-1217 X103.