With the PCE Index data coming in as exactly as expected and the Federal Reserve signaling a strong potential for a rate cut, there is much optimism we will be seeing a rate cut this year if not the start of the next year. Among the PCE inflation data reports were the GDP initial figures, which projected the economy has grown faster than expected. Additionally, Personal Income data has also grown faster than expected. Both are very positive signs with inflation finally showing signs of flagging after in part due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy.
GDP (2nd Revision)
The U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual pace in the second quarter instead of the 2.8% rate originally estimated, revised government data released Thursday show. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting second-quarter GDP to be unrevised at 2.8% rate.
PCE Index
Core personal consumption expenditures prices increased 0.2% in July and 2.6% from a year ago. The 12-month figure was slightly softer than the 2.7% estimate. All-item inflation came in respectively at 0.2% and 2.5%, in line with forecasts. Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast.
Consumer Sentiment
The second and final reading of the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer-sentiment index in August rose slightly to 67.9 from a preliminary 67.8 released earlier in the month, the University of Michigan said Friday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to improve slightly to a final reading of 68. The index was 66.4 in July.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 5.51%.
- 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 6.35%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.08% change for this week. Current rates at 5.82%
- 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.09% change for this week. Current rates at 5.83%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 232,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.
What’s Ahead
Only one important data release next week. The one to look for is the Non-farm Payrolls which has always been a strong indicator of whether wages have been keeping up with the rate of inflation.
ShareSEP
About the Author:
Babak Moghaddam graduated from University of Southern California in 1985. He entered the mortgage industry as a compliance auditor at the Bank of New York in 1986 and completed his masters in Business Administration two years later. After seventeen years in the traditional mortgage banking world Babak finally transformed this vision into his own practice in 2002 when he formed Charter Pacific Lending Corp, a mortgage company that has provided over $900 Million in residential real estate loans throughout Southern California. Babak and his team do things a little differently than other mortgage providers. They work as financial advisors, because they have come to realize that a mortgage is a very powerful financial tool. And just like any other financial tool, it should be managed as part of the overall financial management plan to reach every home owner’s long and short-term financial goals much faster. You can contact Babak for a free consultation and strategy session at (800) 322-1217 X103.